On Strategy: Grasshopper or Ant?

The recent stock market has, like an Indian summer, been most benevolent: a feeling of confidence has seen many investors with portfolios fully committed to a rising market, while a small minority have been building cash reserves. There are echoes here of Aesop’s fable on the grasshopper and the ant. They had very different strategies and only one came out on top.

The fable tells the story of the grasshopper singing in the summer sunshine, while the ant mixed pleasure with planning as it foraged and stored up for winter. When the cold weather inevitably arrived, the hungry grasshopper sought food from the ant, who asked, “But what did you do in summer, when nutrition was abundant?” The grasshopper replied that he sang, to which the ant replied, shutting the door, “Well, now you can dance.”

So far this year, most stock markets around the world have steadily risen; for many investors, it has been a time to sing the virtues of ‘the good times’; others however (maybe not as many, it must be said) have been more cautious, taken profits, foregone some upside pricing, and stocked up on higher levels of cash in their portfolio: they believe cooler investment weather is likely on its way.

The investment team at Joseph Palmer & Sons, highly experienced (as you’d expect in a firm that’s been investing for over 145 years) constantly uses its proprietary process – Relative Value Analysis (RVA) – as well as deep research, to evaluate markets.

The team’s current view is that most markets, here and overseas, are fully priced, so there’s little upside to be gained. While there are pockets of opportunity here and there (and there are), fully priced markets do not permanently defy gravity and a correction often sees buyers turn tail and head for the exits.

It’s when erstwhile buyers become eager sellers that major opportunities arrive – and that is when ready cash is king: thorough research comes into its own to reveal bargains that have been obscured by unrealistic pricing.

These are the sound reasons that the firm’s portfolios have tactically moved more heavily into cash in recent months. Does that moderate performance when markets may still rise slightly? The simple answer is ‘yes’ – temporarily. Does it also mean that the core portfolios are positioned for excellent buying opportunities when the inevitable correction arrives? Absolutely.

When might a correction happen? Nobody can provide a certain date but research indicates it is inevitable … and when the correction arrives, the team here is ready to act – instantly.

So, while grasshoppers have been chanting to the joy of rising markets, the ants have been quietly storing cash in preparation for the opportunities that should soon appear. If you’d like to discuss grasshopper vs ant strategy with an expert, call us today. You’ll be pleased you did.

Simply phone (NSW) 02 9233 2433 – (VIC) 03 9601 6800 or email jps@jpalmer.com.au

You’ll find a Senior Client Advisor will give you an ant’s strategic point of view. With a no-obligation chat, you have nothing to lose and will be dancing when the time is right.

Disclaimer & General Advice Warning

This publication has been prepared by Joseph Palmer & Sons (ABN 29 548 490 818) an Australian Financial Services Licensee (AFSL 247067). Whilst the information contained in this publication has been prepared with all reasonable care from sources, which Joseph Palmer & Sons believes are reliable, no responsibility or liability is accepted by Joseph Palmer & Sons for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. Any opinions, forecasts or recommendations reflects the judgment and assumptions of Joseph Palmer & Sons as at the date of publication and may change without notice. Joseph Palmer & Sons, their officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law. This publication is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Any securities recommendation contained in this publication is unsolicited general information only. Joseph Palmer & Sons are not aware that any recipient intends to rely on this publication and are not aware of the manner in which a recipient intends to use it. In preparing our information, it is not possible to take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investors must obtain individual financial advice from their investment advisor to determine whether recommendations contained in this publication are appropriate to their personal investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before acting on any such recommendations.

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