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F Palmer & ME Palmer
Trading as Joseph Palmer & Sons
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If only he'd known way back then

3 Mar 2020

Some key observations on investing I wish I'd known when younger.

Extrapolation Bias

31 Jan 2020
Extrapolation Bias

In its simplest form, extrapolation bias is the tendency of an investor to overestimate recent events when making decisions about the future. In short, to forecast overly optimistically in rising markets, the reverse when they have fallen. This bias, as with so many related to personal investing, does not serve investors well.

The Gambler’s Fallacy

30 Jan 2020
The Gambler’s Fallacy

Human behaviour seeks to identify patterns in outcomes and react according to intuition, even if it is faulty. One of the best examples of this lies in how people choose to wager on an outcome based on observation. Astute mathematicians have dismissed such behaviour as being fallacious and investors should take note.

The Choice Paradox

29 Jan 2020
The Choice Paradox

We live in an era of wide choice: from selecting delicacies to selecting securities for investment. It is an assumption of our age that abundant choice is one benefit of an enlightened age. Proof exists that choice overload can lead to selection paralysis and the search for a solution.

Investment & Economic Review January 2020

14 Jan 2020

Stock markets displayed their unpredictability in 2019, striding surprisingly and steadily higher after shaking off the volatility of the prior year. Low interest rates and generally benevolent economic and profit conditions provided the catalyst.