Human behaviour seeks to identify patterns in outcomes and react according to intuition, even if it is faulty. One of the best examples of this lies in how people choose to wager on an outcome based on observation. Astute mathematicians have dismissed such behaviour as being fallacious and investors should take note.

Stock markets displayed their unpredictability in 2019, striding surprisingly and steadily higher after shaking off the volatility of the prior year. Low interest rates and generally benevolent economic and profit conditions provided the catalyst.

The true objective of the brain is to maximise its rate of reward. Evolution has hard-wired us to place a high value on instant – in preference to delayed - gratification. Neuroscience, however, indicates that sound reasoning and discipline deliver substantial rewards for deferment.