Financial market observers, investors and analysts can be forgiven for being perplexed, as longstanding and normal logic was disregarded in the second half of 2020 – remarkably, share and real estate prices actually rose despite the recession, depressed earnings, global pandemic and political turbulence.

The 2019/20 financial year was truly extraordinary.  For the first eight months it was steady progress, with asset prices modestly inflating, interest rates staying low and consumer confidence elevated.  Then the pandemic triggered the diametric opposite, a large deflation of asset prices, an economic conflagration and worrying social and health concerns.

My last quarterly report, in early April, coincided with the depths of the market downturn, at which time the wellbeing, social and economic effects and consequences of the global pandemic were entirely unknown.  Three months later there is some clarity and a modestly improved stock market, but still immense uncertainties and rattled consumer and business confidence. 

Investment markets have dislocated in recent weeks, sent into panic by the global Coronavirus pandemic, and consternation about the extent of its effect on human health, consumer spending, economic activity and corporate profitability.

No one can predict the extent to which the disease will spread before containment, nor precisely the effect it will have economically.  But we do have experience in understanding and reacting to periods of significant investment market volatility, particularly shares, so we proffer these observations...