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For a generation now, investors, regulators and consumers have been dealing with a monumental ‘unwind’ process, that sought to and succeeded in shaking the bane of inflation and high interest rates out of the global economic system. In more recent years these concerted and aggressive acts of governments and central banks have consequently pushed this fix-up barrow too far… So now we head into the another great unwind, the ‘normalisation’ phase where interest rates start to rise and inflation returns. But there’s a problem...
As a personal investor ask yourself just three quick questions: first, do you have more free time now than you had a year
ago? (Odds are you said no.) Second: if you could arrange it – painlessly - would you consider gaining free time to indulge
things more pleasurable than administration? (Odds are you would at least consider it.) Third: if you could outsource
your administrative tasks for less than you are paying now, would you?
Increasing tensions between the US and North Korea seem to be starting to weigh on investors’ minds which is as it should be.
It’s a funny old world. Having yesterday noted the impending 10th anniversary of the starting gun going off on the global financial crisis I subsequently tripped over a vignette on Bloomberg which read “Junk subprime auto ABS spreads at record lows”. It really was just a vignette and went on...
The recent stock market has, like an Indian summer, been most benevolent: a feeling of confidence has seen many investors with portfolios fully committed to a rising market, while a small minority have been building cash reserves. There are echoes here of Aesop’s fable on the grasshopper and the ant. They had very different strategies and only one came out on top.