Global financial markets navigated the first quarter of 2026 in a state of high alert, as the optimism of the previous year was met by a significant structural shock in the Middle East. While 2025 ended with a shift in the interest rate cycle and a rise in long-bond yields, the narrative for the March quarter has been dominated by the escalation of conflict in the Persian Gulf.

They are not wrong when they say ‘the devil is in the details’.

Global financial markets were mixed in the final quarter of 2025. The interest rate cycle changed, RBA cash rate expectations reversed, and the long-bond yield rose sharply. Mineral commodities were generally strong which pushed the Australian dollar higher, but share markets flattened off after a solid period.