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F Palmer & ME Palmer
Trading as Joseph Palmer & Sons
AFS Licence 247067 · ABN 29 548 490 818

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Investment & Economic Review January 2021

27 Jan 2021

Financial market observers, investors and analysts can be forgiven for being perplexed, as longstanding and normal logic was disregarded in the second half of 2020 – remarkably, share and real estate prices actually rose despite the recession, depressed earnings, global pandemic and political turbulence.

Investment & Economic Review October 2020

15 Oct 2020

More than half a year has passed since the global pandemic wreaked havoc in societies and financial markets worldwide. Regrettably, the virus remains virulent so has slowed the pace of economic recovery and caused a multitude of social implications to remain prominent. The path towards a vaccine seems promising, with more than 130 projects globally, funded almost limitlessly, with accelerated clinical trial processes. A rapid rebound in consumer confidence and associated economic activity is expected should a successful vaccine become widely available.

Investment & Economic Review July 2020

15 Jul 2020

The 2019/20 financial year was truly extraordinary.  For the first eight months it was steady progress, with asset prices modestly inflating, interest rates staying low and consumer confidence elevated.  Then the pandemic triggered the diametric opposite, a large deflation of asset prices, an economic conflagration and worrying social and health concerns.

My last quarterly report, in early April, coincided with the depths of the market downturn, at which time the wellbeing, social and economic effects and consequences of the global pandemic were entirely unknown.  Three months later there is some clarity and a modestly improved stock market, but still immense uncertainties and rattled consumer and business confidence. 

Investment & Economic Review April 2020

3 Apr 2020

Firstly, and most importantly, the wellbeing of all is foremost in our minds and we sincerely hope for a quick resolution to the awful crisis that is engulfing the world, and a reversion to normality without too much more hardship or suffering.

Stock markets are always the first and most obvious financial indicator when things go awry.   When uncertainty leads to pessimism, (and ultimately fear), market pricing dislocates, as it has in the last month.  This dislocation is amplified by the very mechanics of markets, where computer systems, short selling and algorithms drive volatility indiscriminately.  This period of significant volatility should be relatively short lived, but significant uncertainties remain, such that we expect further bouts of sharp price movements in the coming months.

Investment & Economic Review January 2020

14 Jan 2020

Stock markets displayed their unpredictability in 2019, striding surprisingly and steadily higher after shaking off the volatility of the prior year. Low interest rates and generally benevolent economic and profit conditions provided the catalyst.

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